„The strategy of resistance and partnership” – An analysis of Lithuania’s strategic communication, January–April 2025

CEO Summary:

Between January and April 2025, Lithuania’s strategic communication was dominated by narratives focused on national security, military solidarity with the United States, support for Ukraine, and the development of national defense infrastructure. The most significant communication peak occurred in late March and early April, in response to the crisis involving U.S. soldiers in Pabradė. Public engagement spiked during this crisis period, with high interaction rates across social media. Strategic messaging emphasized unity, deterrence, and shared democratic values with NATO allies. Lithuania positioned itself as a credible and proactive regional actor, highlighting increased defense spending and enhanced bilateral and multilateral cooperation. The tone of communication was assertive, emotionally resonant, and aligned with deterrence and alliance-building objectives. This period reinforced Lithuania’s strategic image as a committed, resilient NATO member facing evolving geopolitical threats.

Scope of Analysis:

  • Dominant Themes: Lithuania focused on military resilience, support for Ukraine, crisis communication related to the Pabradė incident, and defense cooperation with the U.S., NATO, and regional partners.

  • Proportional Breakdown of Communication Themes:

    • Support for Ukraine: 28%

    • Pabradė Military Crisis: 25%

    • NATO/U.S. Military Partnerships: 22%

    • National Defense and Infrastructure Development: 17%

    • Civic Education and Awareness: 8%

  • Audience Engagement Effectiveness: Engagement rates peaked in March–April, especially around emotionally charged posts related to fallen U.S. soldiers. Posts by DSakaliene and the Ministry of National Defence on Twitter and Facebook achieved interaction rates above 7%.

  • Key Narratives and Intensity:

    1. Solidarity with the U.S. military – High-frequency, high-intensity messaging during the crisis.

    2. Geopolitical deterrence – Framing Russia as an ongoing threat and justifying Lithuania’s withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention.

    3. Regional leadership – Positioning Lithuania as a model NATO member with increased defense spending and operational capability.

Communication Channels and Formats:

🔹 Primary Channels: Twitter (DSakaliene, Lithuanian MoD), Facebook (Ministry of National Defence).
🔹 Formats Used:

  • Crisis updates and ceremonial posts (photos, videos),

  • Policy summaries and international visit briefings,

  • Podcasts and citizen engagement campaigns.
    Crisis-related and highly visual content achieved the highest interaction rates.

Key Topics and Saturation:

🔹 Support for Ukraine (28%) – Continuous updates on equipment deliveries, financial aid, and bilateral defense cooperation.
🔹 Pabradė Crisis (25%) – Emotional communication, solidarity, transparent updates, ceremonial farewells.
🔹 NATO/U.S. Cooperation (22%) – Announcements of joint exercises, U.S. troop rotations, strategic agreements.
🔹 Defense Development (17%) – New brigade formation, infrastructure expansion, national defense budget increases.
🔹 Public Awareness (8%) – Civil preparedness guides, podcasts, national commemorations, and volunteer engagement.

Communication Functions:

🔻 Lithuania’s strategic communication served the following functions:

  • Public Mobilization and Government Legitimization – Justification of defense investments and military presence.

  • International Image-Building – Reinforcing Lithuania’s NATO commitment and role as a proactive regional actor.

  • Crisis Management – High-transparency and empathy-driven messaging during the Pabradė tragedy.

  • Civic Education – Content to inform and prepare citizens for defense participation and resilience planning.

Month-by-Month Analysis:

  • January 2025: Focus on defense funding, equipment acquisitions, and NATO partnerships.

    • Theme saturation: Defense 40%, Ukraine 25%, NATO 20%, Education 15%.

  • February 2025: Continued focus on NATO and Ukraine, with minor emphasis on public education.

    • Theme saturation: Ukraine 30%, NATO 28%, Infrastructure 30%, Education 12%.

  • March 2025: Communication dominated by the Pabradė incident.

    • Theme saturation: Crisis 45%, Ukraine 25%, NATO 20%, Defense 10%.

    • Peak period: March 28 – April 3.

  • April 2025: Gradual return to structured themes like NATO cooperation and defense capability building.

    • Theme saturation: Ukraine 35%, NATO 30%, Infrastructure 20%, Education 15%.

🔻 Monthly Communication Peaks:

  • March 11: Independence Day – patriotic posts with NATO references.

  • March 28 – April 3: Crisis peak – rescue operations and memorials.

  • April 25: 35th Anniversary of Lithuania’s National Defence System.

🔻 Month-to-Month Changes:

  • Sharp increase in crisis communication in March.

  • Return to long-term themes of alliances and capacity-building in April.

Operational Conclusions:

  • Lithuania’s communication strategy is consistent, responsive, and emotionally resonant in both routine and crisis contexts.

  • The country effectively positioned itself as a stable and credible NATO member, using strategic communication to manage public sentiment and international perception.

  • The government’s use of empathy and solidarity in the Pabradė crisis enhanced legitimacy and public trust.

  • The integration of defense capability themes with civic education reflects a whole-of-society approach.